“Eemi Ii Janam – Ee Prabhanjanam
Aakaasam Varshichindaa?
Leeka, Bhoomi Iinindaa?”

With this famous speech from the Temple Town of Tirupati, exactly 25 years back, on March 29, 1982 to be precise, the legendary matinee idol late N.T.  Ramarao, literally stormed into the Andhra Pradesh political scene with a blistering attack on the then ruling Congress party. Ramarao hit on Andhra’s pride like never before with his famous quote, “Teluguvaadi Aatma Gouvaram” and made history by literally storming into power in a record nine months time.

And, the political scene in Andhra Pradesh was never the same again. The elections in the state were dull and lull before the emergence of NTR. That’s not anymore. There is drama, action, arc lights, stars, stunts, family battles, fistfights - all the melodrama one looks for inside a movie theatre. 

Amidst this melodrama, where is the common man? Is there a place for him in this high-volte political scene? It’s true, the current politics is dominated by a few rich people, the very rich to be more precise – that’s the sad and bare truth for you.

The Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS), which emerged on the political scene by playing to the sentiments of the regional people with a promise of a separate Telangana state, literally distributed its tickets on a “payment basis”. One realtor  literally told on-camera that he bagged the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha ticket by paying Rs. 10 crore to the party.  Though he was removed from the contention following a big controversy that followed later.  And, TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao denying the allegations that the party tickets were up for “sale” but no one can deny the corrupt practices followed by the present-day politicians. This incident clearly depicts the current situation in the state politics – the poll scenario literally turned into a money-spinning devise – and the poor masses are just a pawn in the game.

A ‘filmy touch’ to campaign

The late N.T. Ramarao has the audacity. He displayed a peculiar style and was more popular with the poor people for his populist schemes, like Rs 2-a-kg rice scheme etc.  His grandson and popular young film star, Junior NTR, with a striking similarities in the looks, name and the style – charmed the state people with his speeches. Clad in Khaki dress and riding on a brand new ‘Chaitanya Ratham’, NTR Junior was an instant hit when he started his state-wide election campaign with a roadshow from Itchapuram in Srikakulam.
 The choice of both the Khaki dress and Chaitanya Ratham was deliberate as these were the two hall marks of NTR when he launched his campaign in 1982 in his own unique style and struck an unprecedented rapport with the masses.

Following in the footsteps of his grandfather, NTR Junior has also started his campaign with a similar dash – he got on to a fully-decked up shining Chaitanya Ratham with huge photographs of himself and his grandfather plastered all around. In his own words, he is setting on a mission to bring the TDP back to power and to restore “Rama Rajyam” of his grand father. But his “political arangetram” was cut short with an injury he suffered during an accident near the state capital and was ruled out for campaign.  

‘Maha tamasha!’

The former chief minister and the current
president of the TDP, N. Chandrababu Naidu showed his skills yet again by stitching a Grand Alliance (Mahaakuutami)  with “friendly parties” (who were bitter rivals till yesterday)  to defeat the ruling Congress party headed by  Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy.

The Grand Alliance partners including TDP, the separatist TRS and both the Left parties (CPM and CPI) fought bitter battles before surviving the day with last-hour seat adjustments after hectic parleys with Chandrababu Naidu pulling a fast one on the TRS. But that was not all over. There is more drama in store and in many parliament and assembly constituencies the alliance partners themselves fighting the electoral battle as Naidu sent TDP nominees with the mandatory B-forms in 22 of the 45 seats allotted to the TRS. Naidu’s trick is similar to the one played by TRS chief Chandrashekar Rao himself on the Congress-led alliance in 2004. It was allotted 42 seats, but it contested 54. This time the TRS stuck to its allotted strength of 45. Purely, electoral compulsions forced these partners to maintain the formation as that is the only way for them to have a true chance of defeating the Congress.

It’s all-family affair

The Election-2009 just seems to “an all-family affair” for the ruling Congress in the state. Eight combinations of brothers, four couples and one pair each of father-son and father-daughter are in the poll fray on behalf of the party! As many as 29 candidates of the Congress have either their children, spouses or brothers contesting the elections. Leading the list is the Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy himself as he pit his industrialist-son Y S Jaganmohan Reddy from the Kadapa Lok Sabha constituency replacing his brother YS Vivekananda Reddy. While YSR himself is seeking re-election from Pulivendula assembly constituency, his son is contesting for the first time from Kadapa.

State Minister for Marketing Botsa
Satyanarayana has “marketed his family” aspirations particularly well by not only managing to retain his assembly seat and his wife Botsa Jhansi’s Vizianagaram Lok Sabha seat but also got an assembly ticket for his brother Botsa Appala Narsaiah.  That’s awesome threesome game! Tribal Welfare Minister D.S. Redya Naik is again contesting for the assembly while the daughter M. Kavita is making an electoral debut by contesting for another assembly seat.

There are at least four couples fighting to get into the state assembly or the Lok Sabha.  Union minister D. Purandareswari, daughter of TDP founder N. T. Ramarao, is the Congress candidate from Visakhapatnam Lok Sabha seat. Her husband D Venkateshwara Rao is seeking re-election from the Parchur assembly. Another central minister, Pannabaka Lakshmi, is contesting from the Bapatla Lok Sabha constituency. This time she also got the assembly ticket for her husband P Krishnaiah,  who was chief public relations officer in South Central Railway. Kotla Suryaprakash Reddy, son of former chief minister K. Vijaybhaskar Reddy, and his wife Sujatamma will seek re-election from the Kunrool Lok Sabha and Dhone assembly seats respectively.

There are at least seven other combinations of brothers who will be contesting elections.  Minister for Labour G Vinod will contest again to the assembly while his industrialist brother G Vivekananda is making his debut from the Peddapalli Lok Sabha constituency. They are sons of veteran Congress leader and former union minister G Venkatswamy. K Venkat Reddy is contesting again for the assembly while his brother K Rajagopal Reddy is contesting for the first time for the Lok Sabha from the newly-created Bhongir constituency. M. Rajamohan Reddy is the Lok Sabha candidate from Nellore while his brother M. Chandrasekhara Reddy is contesting for the state legislature.

Revenue Minister Dharmana Prasad Rao will seek re-election to the assembly while his brother D. Krishna Das will contest from another constituency.  Minister for Information and Public Relations Anam Ramnarayan Reddy and his brother Anam Vivekananda Reddy are seeking re-election to the assembly. Minister for IT R Damodar Reddy and his brother R. Ram Reddy Venkat Reddy are seeking re-election to the assembly. Congress leader Mallu Ravi and his brother M. Bhatti Vikramarka are also in the fray for assembly elections.
The list would have been longer if the party’s central leadership had accepted the requests of several other leaders to accommodate their family members.

Will YSR repeat?

Till very recently, Chief Minister Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy was confidence personified. He looked so confident that his populist schemes like Rajiv Arogyasri, Indiramma House schemes, Jalayagnam, free power for farmers and free rice scheme would help him ride over the Mahaakuutami. But things are not looking so easy for him now. His weary face says it all in recent times.

And, there is yet another factor with actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party set to make a substantial impact in the electoral battle with both Telugu Desam and the Congress likely to suffer from PRP. Chirajanjeevi, with his individual charisma added to his Kapu vote support may play spoilsport  particularly in Andhra belt.  If he is able to win 25—30 seats, that’s what some analysts  feel, well he could turn out to be a major factor. In case of a hung assembly, which will probably be the case, Chiranjeevi’s support, or which way his party would turn eventually, would be the key factor, in the post-poll scenario.

There is yet another major issue, called ‘T’ factor. The Telangana issue would be crucial in the ballot battle for the state.  Certainly, the outcome in Telangana (119 Assembly and 17 Lok Sabha seats) will be crucial for government formation.  Because of this reason, TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu played his cards well to win over the support of his political foe till yesterday, his political foe, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) president K. Chandrasekhar Rao.

No doubt, despite their difference of opinion on the Telangana separate issue, the  Grand Alliance constitutes a formidable force in this region as the combined vote-share of its constituents is more than that of the Congress in 2004. For instance, the CPI (M) does not support a separate Telangana — but they are one in their objective of defeating the Congress.

On the whole, the 2009 elections will be qualitatively different. Caste polarisation is not new to the state electoral politics, but this time it will be more distinct. The Congress leadership is dominated by Reddys just as the TDP’s is made up of Kammas. Chiranjeevi’s entry has given the Kapus a place at the top.

Interesting factor

In the midst of all this, Jayaprakash Narayan deciding to contest the polls with his Lok Satta fielding candidates in many constituents would be yet another interesting factor. Jayapraksh Naryan, who has been waging battle for “clean politics” and fight against corruption in the administration, is contesting from the Kukatpally constituency in Hyderabad.  With most of the population in this area are the migrants from the Andhra region and majority of them and working class, and software professionals, these factors may work in favour of Jayaprakash. But other than his own seat, it’s unlikely that Lok Satta would be able to win any other assembly segments. But the interesting factor is, how it is going to perform, the number of votes it is going to get, would be interesting factor to watch since, it would decide the future course of action of all the parties, since corruption and money in ballot are two major factors in the polls today.

Messy scene at the Centre

The General Election-2009 is becoming rather messy and increasingly perplexing. It’s not surprising though in Indian politics, the RJD supremo and a major ally of the ruling Congress at the Centre, Lalu Prasad swears by
Sonia Gandhi and PM Manmohan Singh and yet is all set to fight the Congress in Bihar in collaboration with Ram Vilas Paswan of Lok Janshakti Party. Both Lalu Prasad and Paswan are current cabinet ministers in the UPA government. Incredible indeed!

The camaraderie between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress is all but over in Uttar Pradesh with Amar Singh, ruefully reminding the Congress about his role in rescuing the party during the trust vote in Parliament.

Down south, PMK has broken away from the Congress in Tamil Nadu. Ramadoss has resigned and joined hands with AIADMK supreme Jayalalithaa, who has been maintaining an enigmatic silence about her aims and aspirations. 

Things are not so different in another major political party –
the Bharatiya Janta Party. Differences between BJP president Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley are simmering and have not been resolved, though they patched up and displaying all-is-well attitude.

And, hold and behold, there is the Third Front comprising parties which have nothing positive in common in terms of ideology or programmes except blind hatred of the BJP and deep aversion to the Congress.  Some of the Third Front parties are not averse to the prospect that future PM would be Mayawati, who has not disguised her prime ministerial ambitions.

Naveen Patnaik whose BJD broke away from the BJP in Orissa has so far not disclosed his options. The latest is the spectacle of the Yadav chieftains,
Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan coming together to forge a front. Is this a Fourth Front? And how long will it last?

And, Maharashtra strong man and president of the Nationalist Congress Party,  NCP,  Sarad Pawar, who himself has disclosed his prime ministerial ambition, has been dilly-dallying with his support to the Congress. Though, Pawar still continues  as the Union minister and staying with the Congress party, but which way he would go will be clear only after elections. 

Several developments can happen in this volatile scenario before elections are completed. The bookies must be having a hard time offering odds. The voter is perplexed and thoroughly disgusted with this bizarre dance of our vibrant democracy.

One disquieting feature has been the war of words, of the kind indulged in by party spokespersons, between PM Manmohan Singh and L K Advani, the BJP prime ministerial candidate. This was rather unbecoming of these two stalwarts and respected political personalities.

The proposal for a national debate between them on television is welcome in which they will hopefully enlighten the voters about the positive aspects of their manifesto, the concrete steps they realistically hope to undertake for the future progress of our country. A frank debate on national issues will enable the voter to make an informed decision about casting his vote.

Recriminations about Advani’s role in Babri Masjid demolition and the frequent chorus that Manmohan Singh has been the weakest PM are passé. The average intelligent voter deserves better. And ultimately it is this voter that can turn the tables in elections as happened in the 1977 general elections.

In this scenario, who is going to form the government at the Centre - predicting this would be a Herculean task. In all probability, it will be yet another coalition government but who will be the lead players – will this will be decided only on May 16 when the poll results will be announced. So, wait for the D-day!