"What goes up must come down!" We are not talking about Satyam's dramatic fall here! The predicament of Ramalinga Raju is not personal but is simply another dimension of the battered global economy taking its toll on one more giant of our times! The battered economy of 2008 further confirms this statement. The shattered share market speaks volumes about it. John Major, the former prime minister of UK, aptly explained the situation in the following words. 'It is really, really, really a tough time'. So, the economy really is going through turmoil. What is happening is 'once in a century crisis'. The spectre of recession in the global economy in the wake of the steep rise in energy and food prices threatens to disrupt the rhythm of economic development. The crisis has choked credit flows and spilled to the stock market. There is high degree of nervousness among the investors which has been caused by liquidity crunch, high cost of borrowing, less availability of credit, instability in the forex market, oil prices and low level of confidence determined by the market sentiments.
   As one crystal gazes into the future, one cannot but wonder whether any nation practising any of the "isms" whether, it be capitalism, communism or socialism, personified by mixed economy, are capable of weathering this kind of storm. How things would pan out foxes even the best of the economists.
   In the Indian context, the net profits of the Indian industry is likely to decline sharply almost by 40 to 45 per cent and therefore leading to a decline in profit after tax margins. Obviously, it is going to affect the job market. It is said that the US job losses in 2008 may be the worst since 1945. In fact, a recent study shows that globally one job is being lost every 10 seconds! The job opportunities in India too are definitely shrinking and the job cut by the private sector is predicted to touch around 30 per cent or so. An alarming situation indeed. Adding to this are the coalition government incapable of initiating bold measures; the ever increasing deficit budgets encouraged by vote bank politics affecting the economy badly; the devastating Bombay massacre and a helpless Government; periodic war roarings and the impending elections. Here, we are, in a fluctuating and fearsome environment and worse, we were not prepared for this. We did not anticipate the stock market to crash down from the dizzy heights of 23,000 to less than 8,000 points.
   The suddenness with which some of the biggest firms like Lehman Brothers (158-year-old), Merrill Lynch and AIG collapsed recently like a house of cards is unbelievable. When the US Government bailed out the AIG with $85 billion loan to control 80 per cent of its share, what happened in capitalist America amounted to accepting the Communist philosophy of the state ownership of all the means of production. The US financial crisis has had its reverberations on both developed and developing world. It is not possible to insulate the Indian economy completely from what is happening in the world.
   We were, after all celebrating the economic boom which has almost solved the unemployment problem of at least the skilled educated youth to a larger extent. Because out of 300 millions of unemployed/employable people only 45 millions have actually registered with the employment offices. Out of our 430 million workforce, 94 per cent is in the unorganised sector and about 6 per cent in the organised sector. About 1.7 per cent of the entire population, that is 18 million people, work for the central and state Government; another 9 million work in the private organised sector which means a total of 2.6 per cent of the population. All the labour laws are made to protect this 2.6 per cent of the Indian population. Every segment is reporting possible job losses. For instance, the Federation of Indian Export Organistions reports that there would be 10 million job cuts in export units before March.
   Through all this, the aim is to focus on the small section managerial manpower employed by the industry, which is currently under a tremendous strain. Ironically, however, it is this very group which alone can bring out the industry and economy from the brink of disaster. The focus therefore, has shifted to the MBA institutes.
   So, what are the career opportunities for MBAs? Should they do MBA at all? To respond to these questions we have to ask one more question. What are the other options open to those who are aspiring to take up the MBA courses? The tragedy today is MBA, essentially, is linked to 'corporate jobs' rather than entrepreneurship or acts of leadership. That is why, even the MBA superstars are getting panicky and approaching everyone including the alumni for help.
   Therefore, the growth of B-Schools is directly relevant to the concept of need and supply. Sometime back, it was projected that the Indian industry will require 1.28 lakh graduates every year. But a study carried out has revealed that 77 per cent of the current MBAs are unemployable. This pathetic condition should be related to the UGC survey which shows that 90 per cent of the colleges and 68 per cent of universities are assessed to be medium or poor; half of class 12 students never even enter college. A survey carried out by me amongst 10,000 MBA aspirants revealed that they attended class to the extent of 30 per cent only whereas their attendance percentage was up to 80 per cent at school level.
   Under these circumstances, we are seeing two grave situations; one, scarcity of jobs in the industry and the situation may not improve in next one or two years. Two, at the same time, the number of employable MBAs are also very less. So one balances the other. The aspirants of management courses will have no choice but to move in the top space of the triangle if they really want to enter the corporate world with a satisfying job profile. And the B-Schools will have to tighten their belt to ensure that the right training is given to the right candidate in the right manners.
   So, the MBA education is going through turbulent times just like the industry. Despite the gloom, there is a clear case for those who want to take part in the action especially at a challenging time like this. It is MBAs who would oversee the recovery and it is the MBAs who would be the first beneficiaries of the economic recovery process. If the dreams of the MBAs are to be realised, a lot more needs to be done. What are they? Every B-School will have to turn into a creative factory producing innovative MBAs who will bring the turnaround in the industry, which is the need of the hour. After all "true leadership is born in the crucible of suffering." The choice is whether one wants to be a jobber or a leader, the best time is here and now to find out. To do that joining the right B-school is important as not every MBA can get you a career or make your dreams come true, especially in the current turbulent times.
(The writer is executive director, BIMM)